Sunday, August 26, 2007

So Many New Demands and So Few Palladium Supplies

It looks like SWC has found a strong bottom at low $8 and is trying very hard to rally upward. I expect SWC to go back to double digit very soon. But really we need to concentrate on the big picture of near future palladium supply and demand.

I discussed before that for the past 4 years, virtually ALL analysts in the palladium market gave bearish outlook for palladium. And all of them have been proven wrong as the palladium price continues to rally up with other precious metals. The analysts were bearish based on the data they have, that Russians dump up to 2 million extra palladium per year from the government stockpile, creating a huge over-supply. But starting in 2003, and for the past 4 years, there have been some strong hand investors, they clearly see something really BIG in the near future of palladium, and loaded up every extra ounces of palladium that the Russians sold, and drive the price up. Did the strong hands see that Russians will soon exhaust the stockpile, and without the stockpile sale, the palladium market is actually in a physical SHORTAGE, not surplus? That of course is one consideration. But the bullish picture is way beyond that, and the strong hands must realize that, too.

The world produces only 7 million ounces of palladium per year. Without Russian government stockpile sale of 2M ounces per year, the existing industry demand already exceeded that supply, even when all recycling is counted for. But the emerging new application demands are way much bigger than existing demands:

1.Palladium jewelry demand. As of early this year, some data show jewelry demand already counted for about 25% of all palladium demand, a few years ago it was virtually zero. And the palladium jewelry market is just started. We will see palladium price be driven to near platinum price, before the palladium jewelry revolution will slow down a bit.

2.Various fuel cell applications use PGM metals. Do you LOVE to see a cell phone that goes 6 months without recharging overnight? Such a thing is powered by fuel cell and it is quickly coming to reality. Both platinum and palladium can be used for catalyst in fuel cells, and nothing else can. Since palladium is cheaper now, they are switching to palladium catalyst. And when it comes to using hydrogen fuel cell, then palladium is a must to filter the hydrogen. We see booming Direct Methanol Fuel Cell (DMFC) to power mobile electronic devices like cell phones and laptops, which will come to mass market as early as later this year. And we see hydrogen fuel cell driven vehicles. Honda already have 15 prototypes driving on the US streets, provide daily transportation for 15 regular US families. Read more on Fuel Cell Today. Update: It's now on CNN: US DOT Moves to Approve Fuel Cells for Airline Uses.

3.Palladium food insert. This is a huge market, even bigger than DMFC market. Each package of preserved food consume just a little bit palladium. But multiply that by hundreds of billions of packages of food, that is a huge demand. And there is little hope for recycling.

4.Hydrogen economy that Bush pitches. Anything that has something to do with hydrogen, must have something to do with palladium, due to the unique hydrogen afinity that only palladium metal exibits. Read the article The Russians Are Coming to see who is selling out our national treasure to the Russians. You really need to know why one of Bush's most close people is on the board of director of SWC.

5.Cold Fusion. Interest in cold fuions are picking up fast in recent years, after new experiments convinced even some of the most diehard skepticists. Even Nobel Prize winners now endorse cold fusion research. Cold fusion MUST be done using palladium, again, due to the unique hydrogen/deuterium affinity property of palladium. If cold fusion is scientically proven and become commercial products, we have solved our energy crisis and replaced it with a palladium crisis. There is simply not enough palladium in the whole world. The price of palladium will be driven to a thousand times more expensive than gold, and people will still think it is cheap to be used in cold fusion applications. The Atomic Motor Blog has some nice discussions on the topic. Read more here for the science of Cold Fusion.

Invest your money in SWC! Hold SWC for long term! You will make money beyond your wildest dreams possible!

A YouTube video discussing the background of Cold Fusion research:

16 comments:

Orsa Maggiore said...

JJ nice finding on the palladium food insert application...I did not know about it. I am working on custom stocks and flows of palladium to assess the current Russian stockpiles dimension, I will keep you updated.
PS
I linked your blog on mine, I noticed you did it too. Thanx.
Orsa

Orsa said...

hey JJ
You may want to look at this ...it's about palladium shortage:
http://palladium-bar.blogspot.com/
see the latest post
goooo SWC

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