Thursday, August 2, 2007

Concentrated Big Short Player Gone

Based on my observation of the SWC daily chart for July 31, August 1st and today, August 2nd, I have to draw an incredible conclusion that the concentrated big short player is gone!

Note I am NOT saying the shorts are gone. The outstanding shorts in SWC is probably still more than 6M shares. But the big short player is gone, replaced the big short are a whole lot of new shorts who are the day traders who get lure in because of the relentless hammering of SWC that every one saw in the last week. Some clueless day traders must figure this is a company on the brink of bankruptcy, and figure they can short this one safely. That's exactly what the big short player wanted. When new retail shorts come on board, they can cover and unwind their position and walk away with their profit.

Why the big short player is gone? Because those relentless hammerings of SWC are all of a sudden absent from SWC daily charts for the past three days. Tuesday, July 31, the volume suddenly dropped. Wednesday the volume is slightly higher due to general market jittering, but I see no serious attempt to hammer down SWC. Today, wednesday, the volume is pathetically low. If the big player is still here and still want to hammer down SWC, there are plenty of opportunity to do so and push SWC down rapidly. Longs cautiously buy here, scared of the prospective that the short may suddenly assault again. But no short assault happened. So that's really good news to longs.

We are only two trade days away from SWC's Q2 earnings release. I am excited. As I explained, based on my best estimate, SWC should report a profit as high as 27.9 cents per share, while the street consensus only give SWC a break even. If the actual earning comes out beat the street by such a huge margin, I fully expect a great rally, and a fierce short squeeze of the full 6M retail shorts trapped here. The float shares of SWC are just too narrow to allow 6M shorts to cover and unwind.


JJ2000426 said...

An interesting old article. The Russians Are Coming: Why did regulators welcome a foreign takeover of the nation's only producer of two vital metals?

Fuel Cells Go Mobile. Fuel cells are not just for automobiles. It is also for portable electronic devices like cell phones or laptop computers!

Anonymous said...

JJ the FAG here!

I like little boys!

Anonymous said...

JJ. The blog is dying to know how much your ROI is.

Word on the street is that you are DOWN about 60% on your plays. Is that true?

And then there is the small pesky problem of FSLR. You were short there from what - $100 ??? It's now trading about what - $210 ??

Wait! Maybe I got this all wrong. I see now... you blog is for those who want to follow you and LOSE their hard earned money.

My mistake.

Let's see if you keep this on - or delete it. Of course, I will continue to HAMMER you on the Yahoo message boards.