Friday, February 8, 2013

The EIA Joked on Natural Gas Production Data

Here is a definite proof that the monthly natural gas production data published by EIA is nothing but a JOKE. They have almost zero credibility.




To start, go to EIA wek site and find the Weekly Natural Gas Update. At the bottom they have a chart showing productions from all shale plays. Below the chart there is a link allowing you to download the raw data used to create the chart.



Do you notice something odd? Despite of massive drilling rig drop, and a lot less wells drilled, and despite of the fact that shale wells decline fast, as shown by EIA, the Marcellus production sems to defy gravity and continue to grow up without any slowing. How could it be possible.



I extracted the Marcellus part of the data, it looks to me like a complete joke. Let me paste all the Marcellus data here, so you can judge whether this is ridiculous or not:



Dry shale gas production (Billion cubic feet per day)

Marcellus (PA and WV)

1/1/2007 0.020414941
2/1/2007 0.021928615
3/1/2007 0.023202324
4/1/2007 0.023539191
5/1/2007 0.024270666
6/1/2007 0.025593099
7/1/2007 0.026332206
8/1/2007 0.025327993
9/1/2007 0.028556724
10/1/2007 0.031472248
11/1/2007 0.034466894
12/1/2007 0.036114525
1/1/2008 0.036439162
2/1/2008 0.057211911
3/1/2008 0.076914715
4/1/2008 0.089541419
5/1/2008 0.109314548
6/1/2008 0.117205475
7/1/2008 0.136433165
8/1/2008 0.139649025
9/1/2008 0.139340395
10/1/2008 0.148172389
11/1/2008 0.148962162
12/1/2008 0.155200095
1/1/2009 0.134042178
2/1/2009 0.091690035
3/1/2009 0.107014843
4/1/2009 0.111614036
5/1/2009 0.117017073
6/1/2009 0.11661637
7/1/2009 0.118719651
8/1/2009 0.128221411
9/1/2009 0.137161605
10/1/2009 0.141329818
11/1/2009 0.140823304
12/1/2009 0.127659797
1/1/2010 0.481882287
2/1/2010 0.637744188
3/1/2010 0.798307082
4/1/2010 0.868073158
5/1/2010 1.017980024
6/1/2010 1.276166703
7/1/2010 1.269514246
8/1/2010 1.42571918
9/1/2010 1.647672123
10/1/2010 1.821883771
11/1/2010 2.047449075
12/1/2010 2.082841924
1/1/2011 2.366314737
2/1/2011 2.526894717
3/1/2011 2.773444294
4/1/2011 3.012380529
5/1/2011 3.057075584
6/1/2011 3.057975032
7/1/2011 3.544594619
8/1/2011 3.568587512
9/1/2011 3.762196787
10/1/2011 3.949613152
11/1/2011 4.405352219
12/1/2011 4.793736336
1/1/2012 5.164640947
2/1/2012 5.478762587
3/1/2012 5.61576504
4/1/2012 5.639587719
5/1/2012 5.991993065
6/1/2012 6.262796758
7/1/2012 6.290871349
8/1/2012 6.555845752
9/1/2012 6.714694689
10/1/2012 6.984281178
11/1/2012 7.257084169
12/1/2012 7.437482985


It can be seen much clearer, if you plot the data into a chart. The chart basically is composed of two straight lines. One straight line is from Jan. 1 of 2007 to Dec. 31 of 2009. It was flat, very low production and virtually no growth. It took three years and production grew from 0.02 BCF/day to 0.128 BCF/day. Effectively no growth.



And then magic happened in Jan. 2010. The production suddenly jumped from 0.128 BCF/day to 0.482 BCF/day. And from then on it was no stop, constant growth at a uniform rapid pace.



From Dec 31, 2009 up to Dec. 31, 2012, latest data available, the Marcellus production was basically a STRAIGHT LINE, going from 0.2 to 7.4 BCF/day in a straight fashion, adding exactly 0.2 BCF/day production rate each month. The growth was so uniform and so linear, it looks like rig count, well count, well declines, production rate change are all irrelevant and all had NO IMPACT on the production. It was just a straight line.



What a joke! EIA has lost all credibility in its data modeling!!! They even pretend it was actual production data. No, it was NOT actual production data. Actually None of the Marcellus producers has reported any H2 2012 production figure to any state government agency, except that they reported the production total in the Q3 quarterly report. The quarterly reports contradict EIA data, BTW.



1 comment:

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